Air Freight Into Africa in 2025: Record Demand, Softer Yields, and What It Means for Your Business
The global air freight market has spent the last two years in an unusual position: demand keeps setting records, but average yields, the effective price per kilogram of cargo carried, have kept sliding. For Nigerian importers and exporters, that combination is quietly one of the most consequential logistics stories of the year.
The Numbers
According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), global air cargo demand grew by 11.3% in 2024, setting an all-time record and finally surpassing the 2021 pandemic-era peak. Growth then continued through 2025, with IATA's October 2025 market analysis reporting global cargo tonne-kilometres (CTK) at a new all-time high, up 4.1% year-on-year.
Africa is the standout region. IATA's October 2025 data shows African carriers leading global growth at 16.6% year-on-year, and the December 2025 analysis confirms Africa held onto 10.1% growth into year-end, one of only two regions in double digits. Despite that surge in volume, global cargo yields continued to fall, a rare split between demand and pricing that reflects a market where capacity has caught up with, and in many corridors overtaken, demand.
What's Driving the Rate Softness
Three structural factors sit behind the yield decline.
First, passenger aviation into and out of Africa has fully recovered, which means belly cargo capacity, the freight carried in the holds of passenger aircraft, is once again abundant on major routes into Lagos, Abuja, Nairobi, Addis Ababa, and Accra. That capacity effectively caps how high freighter operators can price their dedicated services.
Second, aggressive expansion by Gulf and Asian carriers has added competitive pressure on the Europe–West Africa and Asia–Africa trade lanes. New freighter routings and increased frequencies are chasing market share, not premium yields.
Third, African aviation infrastructure has quietly improved. Cargo handling investments at Murtala Muhammed, Nnamdi Azikiwe, and other West African gateways have reduced the ground-side inefficiencies that used to inflate the "total landed cost" of air freight relative to sea.
The Strategic Opportunity for Nigerian Shippers
For Nigerian importers and exporters, the practical implication is straightforward: goods that were previously too expensive to move by air, mid-weight electronics, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, fashion and lifestyle products, specialised automotive parts, high-value B2B components, are now genuine air freight candidates on the numbers.
Businesses that default to sea freight out of cost habit should conduct a mode review at least once a year. When you factor in the cost of financing inventory in transit, insurance on high-value goods, and the customer-service cost of long lead times, a re-quote today will surprise many finance teams. In several categories we handle, air freight now sits close enough to sea on a fully-loaded basis that the six-week reduction in transit time pays for itself.
Where Air Still Doesn't Make Sense
Air freight is not the answer for everything. Low-value, high-volume commodities, building materials, bulk raw inputs, most consumer goods sold on thin margins, will continue to move by sea. The point is not that air has won the argument, but that the line between "air-worthy" and "sea-only" cargo has shifted, and any business that has not re-drawn that line in the last twelve months is likely leaving margin on the table.
How DE-BLINGS Can Help
We negotiate air freight rates across a network of carrier partners into and out of Lagos, and we are actively securing some of the most competitive rates we have seen in three years on both inbound and outbound lanes. If you would like a proper side-by-side quote, air versus sea, for your next shipment, reach out to our freight desk.
Sources
- IATA, "Global Air Cargo Demand Achieves Record Growth in 2024", 29 January 2025.
- IATA, "Air Cargo Market Analysis, October 2025 – Air Cargo Demand at Record High, Yields Still Slide".
- IATA, "Air Cargo Market Analysis, December 2025 – Global Air Cargo Growth Strong Amid Shifting Corridors".
- IATA, "Global Air Cargo Demand Achieved Record Volume in 2025", 29 January 2026.
